Observations

[Reef_Geek]

Originally Posted by Reef_Geek

Interesting points. In my opinion, and not for better or worse (just the way it is)--
In reference to prices and costs. I don't think supplies are cheaper with the exception of some regional markets. Example, the prices of the most premium type of light 15 years ago was $400 to $600 a pop (it was MH), and now the most premium type of LED is about that price... just the technology is different. However, for regional markets that enjoyed isolation before online stores, increases in local competitors (other shops, hobbyist traders) have made the market more efficient in those places, making things priced at fair market value. If nothing else, one thing that does concern me (I used to be in the aquarium business) is that market value (prices) have not gone UP as everything else has gone up. Freight, fuel, labor, utilities, rent/property, taxes, inflation--we all see that our living costs are far higher now than 15 years ago, yet most things are about the same prices (ball park)... especially in livestock (labor intensive, inventory risk, shipping). This is an indication that demand (hobby, industry) has not risen at the same pace as average growth of cities/populations/economies proportionately.

I should clarify... this sounds like a self contradiction.

Things aren't cheaper in terms of face/monetary value.
$20-$30 for a clownfish in 2000 = $20-$30 for a clownfish in 2013
$400 for a top line of light in 2000 = $400 for a top line of light in 2013

in comparison, these have gone up in prices... gas, electricity, property value, postage, wages, entertainment (movie tickets, dinner, Sega Genesis vs xBox prices at launch).


Things are cheaper in the context of time value of money
$25 for a clownfish at 2000 costs of living is a whole lot more than $25 in today's personal finances
$400 in 2000 was a lot of money for an aquarium light for most people, $400 today is not a lot of money for an aquarium light for many people

here's a simple interest calculator for Future Value.
http://www.ultimatecalculators.com/s...alculator.html
Assume a $400 light in 2000, 13 years, 5% growth (say comparable to... a decent mutual fund). That light SHOULD be priced at $660 today, if the demand supports it. But because hobby hasn't grown demand at the same pace as the economy, the current market will not support it. Buying a $400 MH back in 2000 feels like buying a $660 LED today.