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Old 10-25-2013, 05:19 AM
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Originally Posted by MitchM View Post
Here is a seed that should be planted in every junior high school student.
This should be required viewing.

It is an excellent animated 3 part documentary of how vital debt is to our economy.
The first 2 parts are available on Youtube no charge, the third part you need to order and it discusses an alternative "money supply."

I highly recommend everyone to watch at least the first 2 parts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8
I watched the first part and I have to say it was really good. I like the idea of getting rid of the fractional reserve and central banking systems.

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  #2  
Old 10-25-2013, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by reefermadness View Post
I watched the first part and I have to say it was really good. I like the idea of getting rid of the fractional reserve and central banking systems.
While "printing money" to provide liquidity is necessary at times, we are now in uncharted territory with what the US fed is doing with their endless QE. It was originally intended to stimulate the economy (using the theory that a rising tide will float all boats). But now the current US govt is totally dependent on it to finance their over spending. And any hint to slow down QE (as with the recent taper talks), causes fears of another economic slowdown. So now they are living on monetary heroin, and can't get off it.

Not sure where it will end either. They seem to be unable to cut back spending, but at some point the debt will overrun their ability to pay their obligations, ie default. And when China realizes that, they will stop buying US treasury bonds.

Then interest rates will spike, along with inflation, and the economy will really plummet (and not just a short term cold turkey withdrawal).

That is a possible scenario. We are definitely in uncharted territory now, with US govt spending/debt, and QE. And corporations who created the real money for the govts to spend in the past, aren't growing fast enough (top lines, which create the jobs) anymore to keep up. And eventually their bottom lines will suffer, too.

So, you zombie apocalypse guys might be right after all... I'm just glad that I live in Canada,... but we are not immune either.
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  #3  
Old 10-25-2013, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Reef Pilot View Post
While "printing money" to provide liquidity is necessary at times, we are now in uncharted territory with what the US fed is doing with their endless QE. It was originally intended to stimulate the economy (using the theory that a rising tide will float all boats). But now the current US govt is totally dependent on it to finance their over spending. And any hint to slow down QE (as with the recent taper talks), causes fears of another economic slowdown. So now they are living on monetary heroin, and can't get off it.

Not sure where it will end either. They seem to be unable to cut back spending, but at some point the debt will overrun their ability to pay their obligations, ie default. And when China realizes that, they will stop buying US treasury bonds.

Then interest rates will spike, along with inflation, and the economy will really plummet (and not just a short term cold turkey withdrawal).

That is a possible scenario. We are definitely in uncharted territory now, with US govt spending/debt, and QE. And corporations who created the real money for the govts to spend in the past, aren't growing fast enough (top lines, which create the jobs) anymore to keep up. And eventually their bottom lines will suffer, too.

So, you zombie apocalypse guys might be right after all... I'm just glad that I live in Canada,... but we are not immune either.

the US debt is definitely scary. Increasing the debt ceiling is just deferring the problem to the next generation.

It seems that hyperinflation was a popular topic for a while, leading to that last commodity bubble with resource-based investments being over valued. And as soon as the public forgot about it, got some hints that the economy was coming out of the trough, people threw their money into equities again (I did too, lots of under-valued stuff... it was like money was on sale at the bank). But the enormous US debt never went away...

I really don't know how this is going to play out... but there's quite a few potential game changers that can be optimistic.

With Bakken oil and more effective hydraulic fracturing techniques, the US now has a new-found resource that is suggested to make them self sufficient on oil in a few decades. So barring any more spending on new wars and curbing its own spending, there's a chance of managing that debt. If the US reach a point where oil exports exceed imports, that will change the outlook.

With taxes. I've worked in the US and in Canada. Working in the US was great... very little income tax compared to Canada. So, government & money is just like a person with money. If you want less debt, make more money and spend less. If the government want less debt, make more money (increase taxes), and spend less. Yes, increasing taxes is political suicide, but it is still an option (and a necessary one at that). Printing more money just causes inflation and defers the problem... all economists know that and so do the guys in charge. They are just choosing the popular route versus the necessary painful route.

If the US goes into hyperinflation, Canada is equally screwed. Our number one trading partner will then not be able to afford our exports with devaluation of the USD against CAD. Something that cost a US business 1 USD to buy (where CAD is at par) may double or triple with a USD devaluation. Canadian economy will hurt, we're an export & resource-based country.
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Old 10-25-2013, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Reef_Geek View Post
the US debt is definitely scary. Increasing the debt ceiling is just deferring the problem to the next generation.

It seems that hyperinflation was a popular topic for a while, leading to that last commodity bubble with resource-based investments being over valued. And as soon as the public forgot about it, got some hints that the economy was coming out of the trough, people threw their money into equities again (I did too, lots of under-valued stuff... it was like money was on sale at the bank). But the enormous US debt never went away...

I really don't know how this is going to play out... but there's quite a few potential game changers that can be optimistic.

With Bakken oil and more effective hydraulic fracturing techniques, the US now has a new-found resource that is suggested to make them self sufficient on oil in a few decades. So barring any more spending on new wars and curbing its own spending, there's a chance of managing that debt. If the US reach a point where oil exports exceed imports, that will change the outlook.

With taxes. I've worked in the US and in Canada. Working in the US was great... very little income tax compared to Canada. So, government & money is just like a person with money. If you want less debt, make more money and spend less. If the government want less debt, make more money (increase taxes), and spend less. Yes, increasing taxes is political suicide, but it is still an option (and a necessary one at that). Printing more money just causes inflation and defers the problem... all economists know that and so do the guys in charge. They are just choosing the popular route versus the necessary painful route.

If the US goes into hyperinflation, Canada is equally screwed. Our number one trading partner will then not be able to afford our exports with devaluation of the USD against CAD. Something that cost a US business 1 USD to buy (where CAD is at par) may double or triple with a USD devaluation. Canadian economy will hurt, we're an export & resource-based country.
Agree... The US does have some room to increase taxes. But it is all about timing and doing it now may not help things, and just prolong the agony. Cutting spending on the other hand will hurt short term, but it could lead to substantial future growth which then could help pay for some of those future debt obligations and entitlements (and they have just added a 3rd one) spending.

And yes, Canada needs to continue to increase their trade away from the US, especially with Asia. That's where the future seems to be.
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Old 10-25-2013, 04:06 PM
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so I think that we can segue back to the origin idea of this thread... which I think was... an objection to being a slave to a corporation...

A corporation is a subset system within the overall system (our economy, our society). We can be part of it actively (daily rat race), passively (not give it much thought), or reject it (go live in the mountains and prep for apocalypse). In parts of the world where there's higher standards of living, better quality of life, longer life expectancy... first world nations have our type of 'system' of society. These similar systems exist in different first world nations, not due to coincidence, not due to some artificial cause, not by accident... these systems continue successfully because they naturally worked out to prevail.


If I am lucky enough to live in such a system, I can choose to learn it, to understand it, and make the most of it for myself as best that I can, or I can choose to not understand it, get frustrated by it, object to it, and not have as good of a time... for the short time that I am alive in this world

Love it or hate it, money doesn't care, and money doesn't care that you don't understand how it works. So if I want the best quality of life that I can possibly have, it would make the most sense for me to understand how money works, and learn what are the forces that shape my best bet on my resources/wealth.

So I'm not working my butt off for the corporation for no reason. I am a shareholder as an employee too, thus, the corporation also works for me, the board of directors work for me.
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Old 10-25-2013, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Reef_Geek View Post
So I'm not working my butt off for the corporation for no reason. I am a shareholder as an employee too, thus, the corporation also works for me, the board of directors work for me.
Yup, sounds like your head is screwed on solid.... Probably don't have to tell you this, but when it comes to personal finance, debt is the enemy. I was never so happy (well, almost) as the day I paid off my last mortgage.

While I never deprived myself or my family, I was always frugal (and still am), and it has paid off for me. I was able to retire early, and am thoroughly enjoying life. And I have no problem keeping busy (reefing ensures that), as my friends are always asking me what I do with my time.
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  #7  
Old 10-25-2013, 07:12 PM
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Yup, sounds like your head is screwed on solid.... Probably don't have to tell you this, but when it comes to personal finance, debt is the enemy. I was never so happy (well, almost) as the day I paid off my last mortgage.
Thanks.

I think it's about using leverage (debt) with good business sense. Leverage is a very powerful tool. There's bad debt and good debt.

For example, I can't afford to buy my home out right, so I have a mortgage. I buy a property valued appropriately and at the right time/price. I'm not stretching to buy more than what I need, so my mortgage is affordable, and I have enough savings/investments that can handle a rate hike at refinancing. It is forced savings compared to rent.

Another example, I need a car, I could buy it out right... or, I could take advantage of low interest rates. At 2.5% APR... (sometimes zero for other brands), well, I could make more return on investment than 2.5% by keeping my investments rather than cashing them out to pay off the car.

Taking out a line of credit against a property's equity to wisely re-invest... for example to add a bathroom or finish a basement... not to build a pool or buy a Jacuzzi... so long as it can be justified in increase in property value, or additional loan payments and interest is recoverable proportionately (cap rate) in rental income. (and no, in wall aquariums do not increase property value)

Of course, I stay away from bad debt... carrying a credit card balance is a horrendous waste of money. I don't think there's value in leasing vehicles unless it can be a tax write off item for a business... etc.

But yes, I am looking forward to a day long into the future when 40% of my monthly cash flow doesn't get sucked into mortgage payments! It's far far away, but it's a heaven I've heard of!
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