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#1
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#2
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Not sure where it will end either. They seem to be unable to cut back spending, but at some point the debt will overrun their ability to pay their obligations, ie default. And when China realizes that, they will stop buying US treasury bonds. Then interest rates will spike, along with inflation, and the economy will really plummet (and not just a short term cold turkey withdrawal). That is a possible scenario. We are definitely in uncharted territory now, with US govt spending/debt, and QE. And corporations who created the real money for the govts to spend in the past, aren't growing fast enough (top lines, which create the jobs) anymore to keep up. And eventually their bottom lines will suffer, too. So, you zombie apocalypse guys might be right after all... I'm just glad that I live in Canada,... but we are not immune either.
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Reef Pilot's Undersea Oasis: http://www.canreef.com/vbulletin/sho...d.php?t=102101 Frags FS: http://www.canreef.com/vbulletin/sho...d.php?t=115022 Solutions are easy. The real difficulty lies in discovering the problem. |
#3
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the US debt is definitely scary. Increasing the debt ceiling is just deferring the problem to the next generation. It seems that hyperinflation was a popular topic for a while, leading to that last commodity bubble with resource-based investments being over valued. And as soon as the public forgot about it, got some hints that the economy was coming out of the trough, people threw their money into equities again (I did too, lots of under-valued stuff... it was like money was on sale at the bank). But the enormous US debt never went away... I really don't know how this is going to play out... but there's quite a few potential game changers that can be optimistic. With Bakken oil and more effective hydraulic fracturing techniques, the US now has a new-found resource that is suggested to make them self sufficient on oil in a few decades. So barring any more spending on new wars and curbing its own spending, there's a chance of managing that debt. If the US reach a point where oil exports exceed imports, that will change the outlook. With taxes. I've worked in the US and in Canada. Working in the US was great... very little income tax compared to Canada. So, government & money is just like a person with money. If you want less debt, make more money and spend less. If the government want less debt, make more money (increase taxes), and spend less. Yes, increasing taxes is political suicide, but it is still an option (and a necessary one at that). Printing more money just causes inflation and defers the problem... all economists know that and so do the guys in charge. They are just choosing the popular route versus the necessary painful route. If the US goes into hyperinflation, Canada is equally screwed. Our number one trading partner will then not be able to afford our exports with devaluation of the USD against CAD. Something that cost a US business 1 USD to buy (where CAD is at par) may double or triple with a USD devaluation. Canadian economy will hurt, we're an export & resource-based country. |
#4
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And yes, Canada needs to continue to increase their trade away from the US, especially with Asia. That's where the future seems to be.
__________________
Reef Pilot's Undersea Oasis: http://www.canreef.com/vbulletin/sho...d.php?t=102101 Frags FS: http://www.canreef.com/vbulletin/sho...d.php?t=115022 Solutions are easy. The real difficulty lies in discovering the problem. |
#5
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![]() so I think that we can segue back to the origin idea of this thread... which I think was... an objection to being a slave to a corporation...
A corporation is a subset system within the overall system (our economy, our society). We can be part of it actively (daily rat race), passively (not give it much thought), or reject it (go live in the mountains and prep for apocalypse). In parts of the world where there's higher standards of living, better quality of life, longer life expectancy... first world nations have our type of 'system' of society. These similar systems exist in different first world nations, not due to coincidence, not due to some artificial cause, not by accident... these systems continue successfully because they naturally worked out to prevail. If I am lucky enough to live in such a system, I can choose to learn it, to understand it, and make the most of it for myself as best that I can, or I can choose to not understand it, get frustrated by it, object to it, and not have as good of a time... for the short time that I am alive in this world Love it or hate it, money doesn't care, and money doesn't care that you don't understand how it works. So if I want the best quality of life that I can possibly have, it would make the most sense for me to understand how money works, and learn what are the forces that shape my best bet on my resources/wealth. So I'm not working my butt off for the corporation for no reason. I am a shareholder as an employee too, thus, the corporation also works for me, the board of directors work for me. |
#6
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While I never deprived myself or my family, I was always frugal (and still am), and it has paid off for me. I was able to retire early, and am thoroughly enjoying life. And I have no problem keeping busy (reefing ensures that), as my friends are always asking me what I do with my time.
__________________
Reef Pilot's Undersea Oasis: http://www.canreef.com/vbulletin/sho...d.php?t=102101 Frags FS: http://www.canreef.com/vbulletin/sho...d.php?t=115022 Solutions are easy. The real difficulty lies in discovering the problem. |
#7
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I think it's about using leverage (debt) with good business sense. Leverage is a very powerful tool. There's bad debt and good debt. For example, I can't afford to buy my home out right, so I have a mortgage. I buy a property valued appropriately and at the right time/price. I'm not stretching to buy more than what I need, so my mortgage is affordable, and I have enough savings/investments that can handle a rate hike at refinancing. It is forced savings compared to rent. Another example, I need a car, I could buy it out right... or, I could take advantage of low interest rates. At 2.5% APR... (sometimes zero for other brands), well, I could make more return on investment than 2.5% by keeping my investments rather than cashing them out to pay off the car. Taking out a line of credit against a property's equity to wisely re-invest... for example to add a bathroom or finish a basement... not to build a pool or buy a Jacuzzi... so long as it can be justified in increase in property value, or additional loan payments and interest is recoverable proportionately (cap rate) in rental income. (and no, in wall aquariums do not increase property value) Of course, I stay away from bad debt... carrying a credit card balance is a horrendous waste of money. I don't think there's value in leasing vehicles unless it can be a tax write off item for a business... etc. But yes, I am looking forward to a day long into the future when 40% of my monthly cash flow doesn't get sucked into mortgage payments! It's far far away, but it's a heaven I've heard of! |
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