Some interesting comments for sure. Just for fun, I'll throw in my 2cents.
LED technology is not new and unproven. In fact, it is completely proven by many successful tanks. Fewer here in Canada but there are lot's of success stories on RC and LED lighting is hugely popular in Europe.
With that in mind, there are very few LED solutions that are really ready for mainstream SPS tanks and can fully replace MH lighting. In my opinion, the short list is Vertex Illumina 260, Pacific Sun and ReefTech. All of these solutions will exceed the PAR output of a 250W MH and depending on the configuration will also exceed the PAR output of a 400W MH. All of these solutions are fully controllable with rising sun/Kelvin/Lighting/Etc.
There are of course many niche players in the LED market place, but in my opinion, none of the other solutions are ready for full SPS tanks. There are many reasons for this including light spread, LED density, LED Watts and manufacturer, etc. We can argue this point, but I personally woundn't invest in any solution other than the ones listed above.
Of the three manufactures that I listed, none are first generation solutions. The Vertex product is second generation, the Pacific Sun solution is third generation with the fourth generation set to launch very soon. ReefTech is a new company but the technology is an evolution of Pacific Sun.
LED pricing will come down a little bit, but not enough to justify waiting if you need the lights now. All of the solutions I mentioned are modular and upgradable when new LED chips come out.
Specifically, CREE has released a new XPE High Effeciency White (HEW) chip that I figure will show up in Reef lights soon. It is said to be 50% brighter than the standard XPE chip which should make it equivelent to the XPG chips but at a lower cost.
Also interesting is the trend away from optics. Of the three leading manufactures (Vertex, Pacific Sun, ReefTech), none of these use optics. Pacific Sun and ReefTech have optics as an option, but they basically only recommend them for very deep tanks. I personally agree that if the light intensity is sufficient without optics, they should not be necessary and I would not use them.
I guess we have to mention AI - They use optics, but but I have concerns about the solution in general. I'm not going to say much about this solution other than I just don't think it qualifies for the short list.
The magic number for LED lighting seems to be 160W per 2 foot of tank based on CREE XPG White.
Vertex Illuminata X00 series - 80W per foot
Vertex Illuminata 260 series - Can't find the data - It's at least the same as the X00
Pacific Sun - 160W and 190W modules
ReefTech LED - 180W modules
There will continue to be more and more inovation and the next generation fixtures will likely be even more impressive, but that is true of everything in the consumer market. At some point you have to buy in. The real question is whether the technology has matured enough to justify the investment and in my opinion it has.
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