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Originally Posted by gobytron
Cant agree with you there.
LED business is EXPLODING, there are tonnes of new developments in the technology and manufacturing process and more and more companies joining the fray either directly or through joint ventures...this is called an emerging market and the automobile market is an established and stagnant market with no new players joining the fray for some time....electronic vehicles however fit perfectly into the emerging market category with the first all electric Chevy volt having a stocker of arund 45,000$ (and the first one sold at auction for over 200,000$) with Chevy already anticipating a better version (longer travel per charge) and a lower sticker price in the next model year...
This is just the laws of supply and demand at work here, as more competiton enters the supply side, competition leads to lower prices unless there is as much of a significant increase in demand..which given the hobby, seems unlikely.
Look at how much an old aqualight Advance would have cost you 7 or 8 years ago...over 2K for a 48" one and all they had was MH...no led or supplements.
now you can buy a comparable unit for less than half of that price that comes with LEDs and supplements and offer a better design to boot.
There are already these "cheap" designs you metioned...these will only get more advanced as time goes by...I would be shicked if n the next 3 years, we didnt have a "cheap" model that rivalled everything the current Vertex can do and then some.
This process has already been slowed down due to some patent issues (pfo solaris anyone) in the states but that too wll pass and lead to a eve bigger wave of manufacturers getting involved.
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Yes I agree with the theory but that's all it really is, a theory. Solaris fixtures came out in 2007, that was 4 years ago and yet no price drop in LED fixtures yet, some cost more. So in another 3 years you expect to see a 75% reduction in price? Give me a break dude. I'll put money down that LED fixtures will not drop more than 20% in the next three years, if that.