[StirCrazy]

Originally Posted by wayner

If you don't think shots on goal is a worthy stat, your out to lunch - anyhow, if you seen Kipper this year , you would come to understand, or maybe not, judging by some of the comments, that Kipper is the Flames MVP game in game out -

Kipper had a good run on Oct, Nov, and the beggining of Dec.. but what has he done laitly?

Its not that is itsn't a good stat, it showes that the goalie had to be in the net that many times or the puck would have went in.

what I am saying is overall it is a weak stat, and there are breakdowns of it that are much better. look at it this way. if a team is on the penility kill for 40 min of the game and all they do is ice the puck 50 times right at the other teams net from there end, that counts as 50 shots on net.. did the goalie have to work that hard?

here is a good article on goaltending statistice and why they are no good.
it is old, but the theory and statistics are still good, even mention Cow Towns goaltending in 2003 I think.
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...ot_Quality.pdf

here is a quote from his 2005 data
"

Calgary:

It is widely held that Miikka Kiprusoff carried the Flames on his back. However, the Flames saw easier shots than the rest of the league, except when Dany Sabourin played goal (which was only 4 games). However, Kiprusoff exceeded predictions (.933 save percentage

vs. .912 predicted) by a significant margin, thus earning the accolades."

here is 2006 data

"
Calgary:
The Flames, with a defensive style reputation, “prevented” tougher shots against (.903 shot quality). When Vezina winner Miikka Kiprusoff played, the Flames saw a shot quality of .904 and their goalie well outplayed predictions (actual save percentage of .923; 102.10 SQI). When Brian Boucher (acquired late in the year) played, the shot quality was tougher than average (.888) and he failed to stop shots at his predicted rate (96.17 SQI). Philip Sauve (dealt to Phoenix) saw average shot quality and came in below predictions. The Flames tied the Wild for the “easiest” median predicted probability of saving a shot at .940. That is, a
full half of their shots against were predicted to be stopped at the .940 rate or higher, which speaks highly of Calgary’s defense."

anyways Both Luongo and Brodure face easyer shots on a consistant basis also, which also goes to the team building process of getting a good defencive core first. with a good defence you can spen less on a goalie and end up with good results. this was Detroits way of doing businness for years. Calgary kinda did this but they also spent money on a goalie to steal the odd game the defence couldent win.

there is another study out there that goes further and breaks down the shot to where on the ice it was taken, by both distance and angle. I will see if I can find it and post it also it is an eye opener.

Due to my advancing age, I am not as quick as I used to be so I have turned into more of a statistical goal player using my size and angles to my advantage.. but I can definatly tell you that a good defencive pair makes a heck of a differance on the types of shots I face. on our 3 lines one is not very good but they try and if you recorded the goals/shots I bet 60% are when that line is on the ice

Steve